Bitcoin To Hit $180,000 If These Top Indicators Are Absent: VanEck
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said Bitcoin could soar to $180,000 in 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain subdued. talk with podcast Moderated by host Natalie Brunell, Sigel outlined a clear four-year pattern in Bitcoin price action that he believes has persisted across multiple market cycles.
Why $180,000 per Bitcoin seems reasonable
Sigel explained that Bitcoin tends to outperform nearly every other asset class for three years of each four-year halving cycle, before undergoing a deep correction in the fourth year. Citing typical drawdowns of 60% to 80%, Sigel said such declines typically occur about two years after funds draw back. BTC halving event.
Since Bitcoin’s last halving occurred in April 2024, Sigel believes that 2024 and 2025 could be strong years. “The down year is usually the year after the halving,” Siegel explained. “The Bitcoin halving happens in April of this year. So, 2024 (will be) a strong year, 2025 should be a strong year as well. I think unless something changes, 2026 will be a sluggish one One year.”
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Based on historical data, he recalled Bitcoin’s smallest trough-to-peak appreciation in previous cycles, which was around 2,000%. Sigel noted that even if this number were to halve to 1,000%, Bitcoin could rise from a low of around $18,000 to a high of $180,000 in the current cycle. “So I think the price goes up to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that could happen next year,” Sigel added.
He also stressed that Bitcoin’s volatility means the price could go above or below that number, but if the pattern holds and no major “red light” indicators emerge, $180,000 represents a reasonable target for 2024.
Siegel breaks down what he believes are the most important top signals traders need to pay attention to. The first involves derivatives funding rates: If the annualized cost of holding a bullish Bitcoin position in the leveraged market exceeds 10% for more than a few months, Sigel considers this a red flag.
“Some of these indicators include funding rates. When Bitcoin’s funding rates exceed 10% for more than a few months, that tends to raise a red flag,” Sigel warned, explaining that recent market activity has reset the higher Financing Rates: “The washout (last week) took that away as well. So, financing rates aren’t really flashing red.”
The second is the level of unrealized profits on the blockchain. On-chain analysis can reveal whether market participants’ cost base is so low that heavy profit-taking could quickly create selling pressure. “We haven’t seen a staggering amount of unrealized profits,” Siegel noted.
Finally, he said anecdotal evidence of widespread retail leverage or speculation could also raise a red flag. He explained that if all of these risk indicators aligned at a certain price point — for example, if Bitcoin hit $150,000 and these indicators pointed to a market top — he would be cautious. However, he said that if the price reaches around $180,000 without these signals, there may still be room for further appreciation.
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“If we get to $180,000 and none of these lights are flashing, maybe we just let it run. If all these lights are flashing and the price is $150,000, I’m not going to wait,” Sigel added.
Next BTC Cycle Forecast
He also did this by combining Bitcoin with gold market value. Since about half of the gold supply is used for industrial and jewelry purposes, he believes the other half can be compared more directly to Bitcoin’s function as an investment and store of value.
Sigel believes that if Bitcoin reaches a valuation equivalent to half the market value of gold, the price of Bitcoin may trend towards around $450,000 per coin in the next cycle.
He described it from a more forward-looking perspective VanEck’s long-term model Global central banks may eventually include Bitcoin as part of their reserves, even if the weighting is only 2%. Since gold accounts for about 18% of global central bank reserves, Sigel’s hypothesis is that Bitcoin’s share will be much smaller by comparison.
He also considers the possibility that Bitcoin could one day become the settlement currency for global trade among emerging economic blocs such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which could push its valuation significantly higher. According to VanEck’s calculations, by 2050, the price of Bitcoin in this scenario could reach $3 million per coin:
“We also assume that Bitcoin is used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely among the BRICS countries. By 2050, our coin price will reach $3 million, a CAGR of approximately 16%.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $107,219.
Featured image via YouTube/Natalie Brunell, chart via TradingView.com
