US Bitcoin Reserve Uncertainty Grows Amid Shifting Predictions
The prospect of the United States including Bitcoin in its financial reserves remains controversial.
Many experts believe the chances are slim, especially in the short term, as uncertainty dominates discussions within the crypto community.
Bitcoin Reserve Odds Fall As U.S. Policy Analysts Predict Resistance
Forecast platforms and analysts offer wildly different views on the likelihood of Bitcoin entering the U.S. reserve strategy. On Polymarket, users are assigned only a 29% probability President-elect Donald Trump Bitcoin reserves will be introduced within his first 100 days in office. This marks a sharp decline in optimism after the election, when the odds of victory were as high as 60%.
The decline reflects broader skepticism about Bitcoin’s place in U.S. financial policy. Supporters see Bitcoin as a natural complement to existing reserves such as gold and oil. Critics, however, argue that political resistance and current economic conditions make such a move unlikely.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is skeptical The feasibility of Bitcoin adoption in the United States Serves as a reserve asset for the Trump administration. He believes that such a shift will only occur when a country faces a significant threat to its global economic dominance.
Ju compared today’s situation to bitcoin advocate and past movements to restore the gold standard. In both cases, these efforts position alternative assets as solutions to economic uncertainty.
However, historical trends point to resistance to reliance on a single asset. For example, when calls for a return to the gold standard were dismissed in the late 1990s, the United States chose to innovate its way out of its economic challenges. Ju prediction Bitcoin Unless the country’s economic position weakens, it is likely to face similar headwinds.
“If Trump succeeds in demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy, cementing the dollar’s supremacy, and boosting his approval ratings, it’s unclear whether he will maintain the strongly pro-Bitcoin stance he demonstrated during the campaign. He could easily drop his support for Bitcoin, citing a change in priorities, without alienating his voter base,” Ju said.
Despite skepticism, some experts support Bitcoin’s potential role in reshaping global finance. VanEck’s Mathew Sigel recently argued that the U.S. could National debt reduced by as much as 36% By 2050, by adopting strategic Bitcoin reserves. Sigel expects Bitcoin to become the leading settlement currency in global trade, especially for Countries seeking to circumvent U.S. sanctions.
Meanwhile, some market observers believe the move could happen in 2026. Kalshi, a prediction market platform based in New York and open to U.S. participants, believes there is a 56% chance of Bitcoin developing in January 2026.
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