Dogecoin Teeters Between ‘Price Discovery’ And ‘Catastrophe’
Dogecoin price is currently down -34% from its December 8 high of $0.4843. But according to cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), DOGE currently has one of the “better looking” charts. in a new broadcast On X, he takes a deep dive into Dogecoin, the broader market environment and key technical indicators.
Dogecoin: Price Discovery or Disaster?
Despite the current pullback, Kevin believes that Dogecoin’s chart “looks really good right now” and looks stronger than many other cryptocurrencies: “It’s a stronger cryptocurrency than a lot of the cryptocurrencies on the market. Currency. I mean, Doge does look good here (…) Will it look good in a week? But it does look good right now.”
However, he highlighted the possibility of a short-term pullback, which could send Dogecoin down to the $0.026 area: “In the short term, can we pull back and test 26 cents? I’m going to throw it out there (…) I think There’s no real reason to be extremely pessimistic (…) But is it possible that we’re going to get back here? ”
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The $0.26 to $0.28 range becomes a key moment for Dogecoin’s near-term prospects: “As long as we stay above the 28 to 26 cent level (…), I see no reason to be super scared. If we break above this level (…) …) A weekly closing loss of 0.26 cents would be catastrophic.”
Kevin traces this specific goal back to November, when he first suggested that Dogecoin would return to pockets of gold near $0.26. According to him, many people were skeptical, but the level finally hit: “I was under a lot of pressure for making this decision in early November when we were trading at 45 cents (… ) We eventually fell back and tested.”
Looking to the upside, Kevin pointed to a significant area of resistance between $0.30 and $0.35, calling it “very, very big resistance.” He has since labeled $0.94 to $1.00 as his “next big zone,” although he warned traders not to assume a move higher is certain.
For Dogecoin to break out of its previous all-time high and truly enter “full price discovery,” Kevin would like to see a breakout of the 0.703 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracements (approximately $0.53 and $0.59 respectively): “I think There is nothing to support Dogecoin’s return from full price discovery (…) We would like a break above 53 cents (…) followed by 0.786 59 cents if we can sustain a break above 60. Cent area, I don’t see anything holding Dogecoin back.”
Kevin compared it to past market cycles, highlighting how Dogecoin has historically competed with “bull market “Support Bands Before the Rebound” and Macro Support Levels: “We are back and we tested structural support (…) Bullish Support Bands in this cycle. This is very similar to (the last cycle). You can’t deny the similarities. “
He described how Dogecoin’s current chart “almost crazily” reflects its cyclical pattern, referring to a breakout followed by a falling wedge, an initial climb, and a retest of macro support: “Cryptocurrencies have this crazy nature The ability to follow the cyclical nature of its performance (…) It’s amazing, really.”
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Despite Dogecoin’s cyclical consistency, Kevin reminded viewers that external market factors and the performance of Bitcoin (which he called “the leader of the market”) could always disrupt the pattern: “We obviously Requires Bitcoin cooperation. We can’t have anything crazy happening globally. “
Kevin also examined the DOGE/BTC pair, noting the macro trendline and gold pocket test: “We had this macro trendline (…), we broke above it, and then we came back. We are currently in a bullish support band (…) …) We’re back to test the macro gold pockets again.”
He emphasized that if Dogecoin remains above this area on the DOGE/BTC chart, it should move higher. However, a breakdown could spell trouble: “Kind of like the 26 cent level (…), if we go down and break out (…) it will coincide with a breakout of the bullish support bands and the macro gold pockets, in which case We could be in some very deep trouble.”
Kevin also delves into the macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that may impact Dogecoin and the broader crypto space. He is “very optimistic” that President Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January will lead to policies that improve regulation, reduce conflict and promote growth: “With Trump taking office in January, that means We will have a crypto-friendly government (…) If we can end the war in Ukraine and Russia, it will be good for the market (…) We can get inflation back to 2% and start lowering interest rates faster .”
When will DOGE rise again and how high will it go?
Kevin noted that from the plunge in December to the optimism in the first quarter, market participants often came in about a month ahead of expectations. He said that if January ends up being volatile, February could be when the market starts to really climb: “Everyone thought October was going to be bullish. October was not bullish. November was bullish. Now everyone thinks January will be bullish. Bullish (…) Maybe February will be bullish.”
When asked about specific price targets, Kevin pointed to several Fibonacci extensions and Pi Cycle Top Indicator On the Dogecoin chart: “If we break above the previous all-time high, the next area of resistance will be $0.94 to $1.32 (…) If we break above $1.32, the next big resistance area I’m watching is $2.19 to $2.78.”
However, he made it clear that any long-term price forecast will heavily depend on technical indicators and confirmations. He highlighted multiple monthly indicators – MACD, RSI, Stoch RSI and Pi cycle tops – as potential signals to exit positions: “I don’t care what the price is at that point (…) Once we get into that zone, I’m moving on from Profits are deducted from the board. If the monthly indicator starts flashing, I quit.”
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.32.
Featured image created using DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
