Buy Bitcoin If This Happens, Says Arthur Hayes
Maelstrom’s chief investment officer, co -founder and former CEO of Bitmex Arthur Hayes published a new paper entitled “The Ugly”. He believes that he believes that Bitcoin can achieve deep recent retreat in advance, and then eventually eventually eventually eventually Withdraw the Bitcoin. Go to an unprecedented high point. While Hayes retains her own bluntness, it lists two situations when they buy Bitcoin.
If this happens, please buy Bitcoin
Hayes prose First of all, the sudden change of emotions made him caught off guard. Hayes compared financial analysis with skiing in remote areas of dormant volcanic volcanoes, and recalled the hint of the danger of avalanche that forced him to stop and re -evaluate. He expressed a similar sense of anxiety about the current currency condition. He said that he felt intuitive last time at the end of 2021, and it collapsed before the cryptocurrency market collapsed from a record high.
“Central bank’s balance sheet, bank credit growth rate, the subtle actions between the 10 -year inventory/stock/Bitcoin price in the United States and crazy Trump adult He wrote: “The price action has a pit in my stomach. He clarified that he didn’t believe Wide bull cycle It has been completed, but he expects that Bitcoin may fall to about $ 70,000 to $ 75,000, and then rises sharply, reaching $ 250,000 by the end of the year.
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He described this scope reasonably, because in his words, the stock market and the fiscal market appeared in his words, caught in a “dirty legal” environment, and still struggling with the traces of inflation and rising interest rates. Essence Hayes pointed out that his investment company Maelstrom remained a clean time for a long time, and at the same time raised USDE Stablecoins’s holdings. If the price is less than $ 75,000, you can repurchase Bitcoin.
He believes that reducing risks in the short term enables him to retain capital, and later can be deployed in the real market liquidation. He confirmed 30 % of the current level as an obvious possibility, and also acknowledged that the momentum of watching might continue. In the second case, he wrote: “If Bitcoin trades at a price of $ 110,000 in a strong quantity, and Perp’s open interest continues to expand, then I will throw away the towel and buy a higher risk.”
Hayes (Hayes Fed In the United States, the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan-either to curb currency creation funds, or in some cases, it can completely increase the price of currency by allowing the increase in yields. He believes that these changes may kill speculative capital, and the capital has increased stocks and cryptocurrencies in recent months.
His discussions on the United States focus on the views of two mutual locks: the 10 -year national treasury yield may rise to between 5 % and 6 %, and although the Federal Reserve is hostile to Donald Trump’s government, if Donald special Trump’s hostility, if it does not hesitate to maintain the financial stability of the United States.
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However, he believes that at some time, the financial system will need to intervene-the most likely to exempt the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) or a new quantitative loose wave. He argued that the unwillingness or slowly increased the possibility of the recent selling of the bond market, which may weigh the stock and through the correlation Bitcoin.
His political analysis was between Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s continuous hatred and the willingness of the Fed to prevent crisis during the term of President Bayeng. He quoted the statement of William Dudley, the former Federal Reserve Governor, and referred to the Powell’s press conference, which shows that the Fed may change its method based on Trump’s policy.
Haz describes these tensions as a scene trump card A small financial crisis may be allowed to start, forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand. Under this pressure, the Federal Reserve has no choice, can only prevent a wider range from collapse, and then the currency expansion can be followed. He suggested that if the Trump administration has a political reason to increase the yield to the level of crisis, this means that people will be forced to transfer many people to large -scale currency printing in large -scale currency printing in large -scale printing expected by the cryptocurrency circle.
Haz said that China has been preparing to join the Liquid Party through a clear return plan until it suddenly turned around in January. At that time, PBOC stopped its bond purchase plan and allowed people to be stable in a stronger position. He attributed this policy to internal political pressure, or may conduct strategic manipulation of Trump’s future negotiations.
Haier also acknowledged that considering that Bitcoin is a unique value storage, some readers may find the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets. However, he pointed out that the chart shows the 30 -day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100.
He said that in the short term, the leading cryptocurrency is still sensitive to the changes in Fiat’s liquidity, even though the coins are finally traded at an unrelated foundation within the extended time range. Therefore, he described Bitcoin as the main indicator: if bond yields and stock markets fall, Bitcoin can start diving before technical inventory. Hayes believes that once the authorities release the updated currency stimulus, the Bitcoin will be the first backward and rebound with a flat fluctuation.
He acknowledged that the exact result of prediction is impossible, and any investor must play the probability of perception rather than certainty. His hedging decision comes from the concept of expected value. If he thinks that there is a big possibility compared to the less likely, Bitcoin will continue to be higher before deciding to purchase at a 10 % premium, then reducing risks will still generate better risk rewards ratio.
He emphasized: “Transactions are not right or wrong, but about the probability and maximum expected value of the transaction.” He also emphasized that this protection position enables him to wait for the dramatic nature of the short -term Bitcoin collapse. The liquidation movement, which he called “Averageddon” in the so -called “Shitcoin Space”. In this case, he hopes to have enough funds to get the sound token fundamentally at a serious reduction price.
At the time of release, the transaction price of BTC was $ 102,530.
Use the characteristic images created by Dall.e, the chart of tradingView.com
