Bitcoin Won’t Hit $400k This Cycle, Realistic Target: VanEck CEO
in a interview Jan van Eck, CEO of $118 billion global asset management firm VanEck, joins Mario Nawfal to analyze Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, the U.S. fiscal deficit and broader financial markets. Contrary to some ultra-optimistic predictions, Van Eyck offers a more conservative Bitcoin price target for this bull run.
“Our thesis is really that Bitcoin will remain in the halving cycle, so we set a price target of $150,000 to $180,000 for this cycle,” Van Eck said. He dismissed the possibility that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 in the current cycle. view, suggesting that this milestone may be achieved in the next cycle. “In the next cycle, it hits my target of half the value of gold, which is over $400,000, depending on gold prices,” he added.
When discussing the U.S. fiscal deficit, Van Eyck viewed it as the “elephant in the room” and a major concern for markets. “The money we are spending is completely unsustainable and for any other country they would be going bankrupt,” he said.
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He outlines two prevailing schools of thought in Washington regarding fiscal policy. The first is the lobbyist perspective, which claims that it is impossible to make deep spending cuts that would result in a minimal slowdown in budget deficit growth. The second is the “extreme saboteur” approach, which advocates cutting $500 billion in government spending.
Van Eyk attributes the figure to Vivek Ramaswamy, co-director of the organization. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)noted, “They can achieve this because there are 1,200 projects that are no longer authorized but are still spending money, which means they can terminate them by executive order.” He called the goal “healthy” and “realistic,” Although he acknowledged that it would not eliminate the entire $1.8 trillion deficit last year.
When it comes to the market’s reaction to President Trump’s election, van Eyck finds it odd that despite the clear election outcome, there remains uncertainty about fiscal policy. “We were swept by a party but we didn’t really know what their fiscal policy was going to be,” he commented.
He noted that the initial market reaction was negative for gold due to possible government reorganization. “The initial reaction was bearish on gold because the idea was, wow, maybe they’re going to be able to shake up the government. Never bet against Elon, right?” he said.
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Van Eyck also commented on geopolitical tensions, particularly Ukraine and approved long-range missiles penetrating deep into Russian territory. While he acknowledged that such events could impact markets, he warned, “The problem is that geopolitical issues are completely uninvestable. We never know what the next headline is going to be, and we don’t know whether it’s bullish or bearish.” He advises professionals Investors often choose to respond with “absolutely no action” geopolitical uncertainty.
Catalysts for Bitcoin Price
Regarding Bitcoin’s institutional interest and regulatory shifts, Van Eyck emphasized that the regulatory environment plays a crucial role. “It really depends on the regulatory environment,” he said. He noted that while regulators in regions such as Asia have given the green light, the U.S. has been relatively quiet. However, he points to a recent uptick in interest: “Now, with the new regime, the phone is ringing off the hook.”
Van Eyck revealed his personal investment stance, saying: “This is why I personally have a lot of investments in Bitcoin and gold.” He expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s maturation process, likening it to a growing child : “I would say it’s a bit like a teenager, and what makes it mature is the entry of new investors.” He noted that while individual investors have embraced Bitcoin ETFs, the wealth management industry has not yet fully participated.
Speaking about Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets, particularly Nasdaq, Van Eyck acknowledged concerns: “What worries me the most is (…) Bitcoin’s Relevance The Nasdaq is high. He explained that this high correlation makes Bitcoin less attractive to professional investors who are already over-invested in large-cap technology stocks. However, he remains hopeful that Bitcoin’s correlation will weaken: “Support and expect Its correlation will go back to zero, which it has been in the long run. “
At press time, BTC was trading at $95,350.
Featured image created using DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
