Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Reserve Is Unlikely; Warns BTC Sell-Off Under Trump
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently warned that Bitcoin could experience a “vicious sell-off” after Donald Trump takes office. in detailed blog postalHayes expressed doubts about Trump’s ability to deliver on his ambitious promises regarding cryptocurrencies, including making the United States the “crypto capital of the world” and building a Bitcoin reserve.
Hayes expresses doubt about Trump’s policy implementation
Hayes made clear his government had just 12 months to implement his ambitious policies. He believes Trump will face major political challenges, with much of his term being overshadowed by the 2026 midterm elections, making it difficult to implement meaningful changes.
“It is nearly impossible for Trump to appease his base sufficiently to prevent Democrats from retaking both legislative chambers in 2026. People are impatient because they are desperate,” he wrote. He noted that when the market realizes this, Bitcoin and other so-called “Trump trades” are about to experience a “pain dump.”
Bitcoin reserves unlikely?
Hayes also dismissed the idea of a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, suggesting it would not materialize and stressing that the threat of such a reserve could create buying pressure.
Arthur Hayes said that if the U.S. government devalued the dollar by printing more money and used some of it to buy Bitcoin, the fiat price of Bitcoin would rise. This will trigger other countries to follow suit and buy Bitcoin to keep up, causing its price to rise significantly.
Hayes believes that while long-term Bitcoin holders may eventually sell at high fiat prices, this is unlikely to happen with the US Bitcoin Reserve (BSR). He believes politicians will prioritize using newly created dollars to implement populist measures to secure votes in upcoming elections.
Rapid depreciation of the dollar
Hayes believes that Trump, with the help of his economic adviser Mark Bessant, will initiate a rapid depreciation of the dollar, most likely through the dollar’s depreciation against gold in the first half of 2025. The move is aimed at creating a competitive economy to improve the U.S. environment, boost domestic production and win support for the Republican agenda.
Hayes predicted that “another pillar of the cryptocurrency bull market” could emerge if mainland Chinese investors are eventually allowed to invest in Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong. Furthermore, Hayes predicts that EU leaders will buy cryptocurrencies in secret while ordinary citizens suffer from inflation.
Hayes believes that Trump’s economic policies will trigger a shift in global currency values and financial systems, and that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will be the main beneficiaries in the medium to long term.
Still, while Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, predicting its price will rise to $1 million, he also said the path to that goal will be unstable, with significant price corrections along the way.
