Bitcoin Could ‘Easily Double’ In A Short Time: Hedge Fund CEO
On the latest episode of Milk Roadshow, Charles Edwards, founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Capriole Investments, said: if An in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current state, future trajectory, and potential conclusions from the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Edwards believes that Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 could be the catalyst for unprecedented price acceleration. He believes that once this psychological and technical barrier is breached, Bitcoin could double in value within weeks. Comparing gold’s recent performance, Edwards said: “If you look at gold this year, it’s up 33% in 16 weeks, which is equivalent to $3.8 trillion for a really old asset. USD moves. For Bitcoin to go from $100,000 to $200,000, it only takes $2 trillion for this asset to be traded 24/7 and more accessible globally.”
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is relatively small compared to gold, so its price fluctuates more rapidly. Historically, after surpassing previous all-time highs, Bitcoin has experienced significant and rapid appreciation, entering a period of price discovery where supply constraints can cause prices to rise vertically.
When will Bitcoin price double?
The $100,000 mark isn’t just a round number; It represents a significant resistance level due to a number of factors. Edwards highlighted the existence of a massive sell wall at this price point, stating: “The biggest sell wall we’ve seen in the Bitcoin order book is at $100,000. I think, yes, once that gets resolved, you’re going to “You will know that everyone who wanted to sell has already sold, and there will be a very sharp and rapid vertical appreciation in price because there will be no more supply.”
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Additionally, many investors who entered the market at a lower price may view $100,000 as the sweet spot to realize profits, which may create selling pressure. However, given the seasonal strength of Bitcoin price action in Q4 and Q1, Edwards remains optimistic that this hurdle will be surpassed, especially in the coming months.
“We’re (at some point) in a seasonal cycle, which is kind of like an optimal two to four month period, (…) maybe there’s a five to six month period every four years. After every four years there’s a halving , you have about 12 to 18 months to get 90% to 95% of all cycle returns every four years, so most of that happens in the year, if you look at the fourth quarter and the first quarter. Once the monthly all-time highs were breached, that was again the bulk of the returns (…),” the hedge fund CEO said.
While Edwards is bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects, he warned investors to be aware of the market’s inherent volatility. He pointed out 20% to 30% correction This is normal during a bull market and investors should be prepared for such fluctuations. “In a Bitcoin bull market, it’s normal to see a 30% retracement every few months,” he noted.
Factors such as increased market leverage may exacerbate price volatility. Edwards mentioned that if leverage and funding rates continue to rise without weakening the existing sell-off wall, Bitcoin could revisit lower support, possibly around $80,000. However, he emphasized that such fluctuations are a natural part of Bitcoin’s growth cycle and do not necessarily mean a long-term downturn.
Is the traditional four-year cycle over?
An important issue discussed is the traditional 4 years as a cycleLargely driven by the halving event, conclusions are being drawn. Edwards believes that as Bitcoin matures and integrates more deeply with the traditional financial system, the impact of halving on market cycles will weaken.
“As Bitcoin inflation decreases and becomes more integrated with traditional finance, the impact of the four-year halving cycle may become less. The large 80% retracements we have seen in the past may not occur in future cycles ,” he said.
This maturation process may lead to more stable growth patterns and reduced volatility. Edwards said future cycles are likely to see narrower corrections, perhaps around 60%, rather than the sharp declines seen in previous years.
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It’s worth noting that there are some potential catalysts that could push Bitcoin’s price to unprecedented levels. Edwards mentioned the possibility of the US government establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin Under President-elect Donald Trump.
While he estimates the chance of this happening in 2025 is about 30%, he acknowledges that such an event would be a game changer. “It would be nice to assume (the U.S. government) doesn’t sell existing assets, but that probably won’t help the cycle much. Aggressive buying of Bitcoin could be a game changer,” he said.
Enterprise adoption is another important factor. The potential for large companies to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets could drive significant demand. Edwards highlighted Microsoft’s upcoming vote on the matter, saying: “We hope it’s Microsoft (December 10) voting.”
Furthermore, the success of sJar Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Opened the door for institutional investors. Continued demand for ETFs has been steadily absorbing Bitcoin supply. Edwards observed, “ETFs have just violently sucked Bitcoin out of the system.”
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Edwards provides fundamentals and an optimistic scenario for Bitcoin price this cycle. “I would be surprised if we didn’t hit $140,000,” he said. The base case assumes stable market conditions without any unusual positive events.
In a more optimistic scenario, he believes Bitcoin could reach $200,000, especially if major catalysts such as government or corporate adoption materialize. “We can easily hit $200,000. Once we clear these all-time highs, Bitcoin will double very quickly,” he explained.
He concluded: “Once we get above $100,000, people who have not been exposed to Bitcoin will not be able to understand Bitcoin above $100,000 (…) That’s when you see the real switching and money flow happening.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $94,814.
Featured image created using DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
