How 2025 Gray Swan Events Could Shape Crypto Markets
If you’re passionate about cryptocurrency, you’ll have plenty of experience with its unpredictability. It’s full of surprises. One day prices surge, the next day prices may fall. according to Gareth NicholsonThe chief investment officer of Nomura Securities believes that 2025 may bring some huge turbulent events to the global financial market. He produced a 100-page report for next year, which also included some “grey swan events.” Let’s understand what these events are and how they may impact the crypto market in the coming year.
What these gray swans mean for cryptocurrencies
A gray swan event is an event that has a low or almost no chance of occurring but would have a huge impact if it did occur. Nicholas mentioned the following events in Nomura’s 2025 outlook report.
1. NVIDIA Collapse: Trouble with Cryptocurrency Mining
NVIDIA is more than just a tech giant, it’s at the heart of cryptocurrency mining. If its value drops sharply, miners may have difficulty obtaining the hardware they need. This could slow down blockchain networks and expose smaller cryptocurrencies to attacks. If miners don’t have access to affordable technology, it could also reduce confidence in the entire crypto ecosystem. A crash like this could lead to panic selling, causing Bitcoin and altcoins to plummet.
2. Unwinding of arbitrage trades: liquidity weakens
If this happens, people will not have the funds to invest more in cryptocurrencies, and they can even withdraw their crypto portfolios. Even large investors may withdraw funds from the cryptocurrency market in order to ensure the safety of their funds, triggering panic selling and plunges. Still, some investors may view Bitcoin as a safer bet in hard times, viewing it as a hedge against traditional markets. But no matter what, it’s a gamble.
3. Treasury yields rise: Bitcoin faces pressure
If Treasury yields rise above 6%, it may make more sense for investors to invest their money in safer, stable options. For cryptocurrencies, this could make them less attractive. People may abandon high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and choose more stable returns. However, in this case, Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge may increase. Rising U.S. Treasury yields could weaken the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin could be seen as a better bet. Ultimately, how people view Bitcoin—whether as “digital gold” or simply a speculative investment—will determine its fate.
4. US growth shock: What happens if the economy slows down?
If the U.S. economy slows unexpectedly in 2025, it could cause big problems for global markets. Shocks like this reduce the amount of money available for investment, making it harder for people to access capital and causing markets to fall. Crypto markets, already considered risky, could take a bigger hit as investors retreat from risky assets. As global financial conditions tighten, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may decline.
5. Geopolitical tensions: Can Bitcoin handle it?
When political conflicts occur, markets often take a hit. Investors often turn to safer assets like gold, which can cause cryptocurrencies to struggle. The world has witnessed this many times, such as during conflicts in the Middle East. However, Bitcoin may come out on top during these difficult times. Since it is decentralized, people in financially restricted areas can look to it as a way to keep their money safe. While political tensions may cause short-term declines in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin may gain more support in the long term as people look for alternatives to traditional finance.
6. China’s stimulus measures are not strong enough
If China’s economic stimulus package does not live up to expectations, it could lead to a slowdown in Bitcoin demand. Investors may lose confidence in China’s ability to boost the economy, which could spread to global markets including cryptocurrencies. As the market reacts to disappointment, this scenario could lead to lower investor sentiment and increased volatility, rather than pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.
How to prepare for the unexpected?
These gray swans are unpredictable. However, there are still steps that cryptocurrency investors can take to protect themselves:
diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. Diversify your risk by investing in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other altcoins.
Stay informed: Follow global trends, interest rates and political changes. Cryptocurrency does not exist in a vacuum; it is part of the larger global economy.
Use risk management: Tools like stop-loss orders and portfolio rebalancing can help you minimize potential losses.
long term thinking: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. But focusing on its long-term potential can help you stay calm during short-term dips.
Why is it important?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are now part of the larger financial ecosystem. Events like NVIDIA’s collapse or rising Treasury yields could create challenges and new opportunities.
The key to preparing for 2025 is to stay informed, flexible and prepared for unexpected gray swan events. The future of cryptocurrency will depend on how it adapts to these changes. By being prepared, you can make the most of whatever the coming year has to offer.
