How Low Can Dogecoin Go Before It Rebounds? Expert Forecasts
Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant decline over the past 12 days, losing more than 40% of its value. After trading above $0.48 on December 8, the meme-inspired cryptocurrency briefly fell to $0.2638 on December 20, sparking a wave of speculation about its near-term direction. The background to this reduction is Broader Crypto Market Reaction The recent economic downturn is largely due to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) hawkish forecasts.
While the Fed’s December meeting delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut, the real shock came from a revised dot plot that suggested fewer rate cuts ahead than previously expected. Markets had hoped for three rate cuts in 2025, but FOMC guidance is now leaning toward just two, signaling a more cautious approach amid ongoing inflationary pressures. This change in outlook triggered a broad sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $93,000, with altcoins down -20%. Within 24 hours, long positions worth up to $1.17 billion were liquidated across the cryptocurrency market.
How low can Dogecoin go?
Several prominent analysts weighed in on DOGE’s retreat, placing it in the context of historical patterns and macro drivers. Technical Analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) Highlights Importance of previous cycles. He noted that historically, Dogecoin has experienced multiple major corrections on its way to the top of the cycle, noting that the current pullback (similar to the past 50% decline) may be normal bull market structure rather than a sign of systemic weakness.
Related reading
Kevin said, “In the last cycle, Dogecoin experienced three separate 50% corrections on the way to the top of the cycle. If we take advantage of the macro structural support and the macro gold pocket directly below, based on historical analysis, from the high There is about a 45% correction, which is enough for us to resume the uptrend. If we lose 0.26 cents on the weekly close, then I would start to get seriously worried about this market structure, but until then this should be considered normal. Bull market correction.”
Kevin also highlighted Bitcoin’s impact on the altcoin landscape. He encouraged traders to “not focus too much on altcoin charts” to gauge price, rather than just focusing on DOGE’s standalone chart. Market macro trend. Bitcoin remains a key asset, with its price movements often determining sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency space.
Kevin illustrated this by sharing a BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, suggesting that the market may be looking to clear lower liquidity ahead of any meaningful rally. “Let’s lock in all liquidity between $95,000-$90,000 and then we can start talking about a rebound. Until then there’s no reason to overanalyze. Fundamentally, the market is overreacting to Powell’s comments without really Just listen to him because of the rate cut predictions,” he wrote.
Related reading
Another cryptocurrency analyst Balo (@btcbalo) highlighted the importance of the $0.26 level. he point out Dogecoin “still has a few days to save the week,” suggesting a weekly close above that threshold would maintain a structurally sound market framework.
Successful holding of the $0.26 area could set the stage for a new uptrend that could target a return to $0.42 – which Balo believes is a key pivot point. In his words, retaking $0.42 would allow DOGE to “teleport” to the $4 mark, a scenario he linked to a full-blown bull market recovery.
A third analyst, CEO (@Investments_CEO), brings historical perspective, suggesting that DOGE’s current pattern is consistent with its multi-year cyclical nature. “DOGE appears to be consistent with its typical 3-4 year cycle. Shrinking,” he said.
analyst refers to DOGE price action following its previous cycle fractal. Back in 2021, Dogecoin experienced its first major surge, approaching all-time highs (ATH). After the 50% correction, DOGE resumed its upward trend, broke through ATH, and entered the price discovery stage. As mentioned, this scenario is likely consistent with the $0.26 price target.
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.26919.
Featured image created using DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
