Is Bitcoin Delivering Above $100K Christmas Miracle?
2024 is coming to an end and crypto enthusiasts are waiting for the “Santa Claus rally”. Will the cryptocurrency end the year with a bang, or will it end quietly? Bitcoin is currently hovering around $96,316, down slightly 0.35% from its December opening. It was over 2% just a few minutes ago, but as Christmas Eve approaches, Santa seems to be preparing gifts.
Current momentum: A mixed bag
At the beginning of December, Bitcoin hit new highs repeatedly, but it is now down $15,000 from last week’s peak. Nonetheless, BTC has gained 2.28% in the past two hours, indicating that short-term traders remain active.
Zooming out, Bitcoin’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 was impressive. This quarter alone is up nearly 49%. Year-to-date returns are even more impressive, up 124% from January and 157% from the year’s peak.
While these numbers are exciting, December’s moves feel average compared to Bitcoin’s usual year-end fireworks. Historically, December swings both ways, so the cautious optimism we’re seeing now makes sense.
Indicators hint at growth potential
Technical charts tell an interesting story. Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is 75.20, indicating that it is oversold but still has room to grow.
In previous bull markets, the RSI was as high as 96, so there is precedent for more upward momentum.
The hourly chart shows an RSI of 62, which suggests a move higher in the short term unless large traders (whales) decide to close their positions. Speaking of whales, their activity above the $90,000 area suggests that resistance is waning. However, key resistance lies at $96,400, with more important resistance above $108,000.
This creates a scenario where the path to a Christmas rally looks possible but not guaranteed. Liquidation of short trades adds to optimism, but intervention by whales could lead to market volatility.
what to expect
With just one week left in December, the last week’s candle could determine Bitcoin’s fate for the year. The possibility of a Christmas bounce remains, driven by strong market sentiment and reduced resistance. But let’s not ignore the risk of whale-driven liquidations, which could keep prices below $100,000 for the time being.
One thing is clear – Bitcoin doesn’t surprise us. Whether it’s a steady rise or a sharp rise, the final days of 2024 are still likely to bring big headlines.
